Best Actor

Awards Nominations:

Gotham Award Nomination
Independent Spirit Award Nomination
National Board of Review Winner
New York Film Critics Circle Winner
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Winner
Broadcast Film Critics Association Winner
Golden Globe Winner
Screen Actors Guild Nomination
National Society of Film Critics Winner
* BAFTA Nominee 

Predictions (12/31): While Chalamet has continued to rack up an astounding amount of precursor prizes, I feel Oldman will regain a bit of momentum once the Broadcast Film Critics, Globes and SAG announce their winners. Call Me By Your Name was once presumed to have more heat than Darkest Hour, but Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg blanking with the Screen Actors Guild suggests the two might be running neck and neck. This category favors vets more than newcomers, so I think this is still Oldman’s to lose. 

That leaves three spots up for grabs, and only James Franco and Daniel Kaluuya have appeared with every group thus far. It would appear that Daniel Day Lewis, Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal are all fighting over that last slot. They’ve passed over Hanks many times before with flashier turns (Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks), and Washington’s film has some pretty divisive reactions. Ultimately, I think Lewis makes it in for his farewell performance. 

The Frontrunners

  1. Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour**+
  2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name***+++

Looking Good

  1. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out****+
  2. James Franco, The Disaster Artist**++
  3. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread**

On the Bubble:

  1. Tom Hanks, The Post*+
  2. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel ESQ*

Falling Off

  1. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger*