Best Picture

Awards Nominations:

+ Golden Lion (Venice)
+ People’s Choice Winner (TIFF)
* Independent Spirit Award Nominee
+ AFI Top 10
+ National Board of Review Winner
+ New York Film Critics Circle Winner
+ Los Angeles Film Critics Association Winner
+ Broadcast Film Critics Association Winner
+ Golden Globe Winner
* Screen Actor’s Guild Nominee
+ Producer’s Guild Winner
+ National Society of Film Critics Winner
* BAFTA Nominee

The Low Down:

Is it really 1917? That’s what it seems like at the current moment. Sam Mendes’ war epic won big at the Golden Globes and the Producer’s Guild. Not to mention it racked up some nominations with the Academy, even if it wasn’t the nomination count leader (that would be Joker). That said, Parasite and Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood are both formidable contenders, and were recognized with SAG’s Best Ensemble nominations (as was Jojo Rabbit). The latter three also racked up Editing nominations, which stat obsessives would tell you is crucial to winning Best Picture (unless you’re Birdman, which was a SAG Ensemble winner… see what I’m getting at here?). 

Note: Parasite also upset with the Editor’s guild. I think that’s pretty significant. 

1917 could very well be our winner hiding in plain sight amongst hope that something like Parasite could win, or that the Academy will default to their other obsession: themselves (Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood). It’s too close to call at the moment, but if Parasite upsets at SAG… watch out.

The Frontrunners: 

  1. 1917+++
  2. Parasite*+++
  3. Once Upon A Time In… Hollywood*++
  4. Jojo Rabbit*++
  5. Joker++
  6. The Irishman*+++
  7. Marriage Story
  8. Ford v. Ferrari
  9. Little Women+
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