Academy Award Predictions: Roma vs. Green Book vs. Black Panther?

All good things must come to an end, though based on your personal opinions this awards season may not have been a good thing. Films came and went (First ManMary Poppins ReturnsFirst Reformed) and others (Bohemian Rhapsody, Green BookThe Favourite) stayed to varying degrees of anger or pleasure. A Star Is Born kicked off the season as the de-facto frontrunner and fumbled when things started to get competitive; it hasn’t been able to regain any of the lost momentum as the season has drummed along. 

Roma has seemingly taken its place, but there’s still a bunch of uncertainty swirling around its chances as an actual winner. With wins at the Golden Globes, the PGA and TIFF’s People’s Choice Award, Green Book is seemingly next in line despite a ton of controversy and valid criticisms against the film. Also not a stranger to controversy, Bohemian Rhapsody‘s success both financially and awards wise despite it being a terrible film continues to confound even the most tenured Oscar watchers. Do people really love Queen that much? Evidently, yes. The heat around Vice was extinguished the moment the embargo was let up. Eight nominations is nothing to balk at, but nobody seems to be rushing to give this Frankenstein of a movie any awards. There seems to be a lot of love for The Favourite, but it doesn’t sound like it translates into the widespread kind of love needed to succeed on the preferential ballot. 

And then there’s Black Panther, which has both the box office receipts, critical acclaim to and a SAG ensemble win that makes it a worthy Best Picture winner. But a disappointing nomination count, despite a win at the Screen Actors Guild, is giving me pause from thinking it’s as big of a threat as the other aforementioned films. 

With each film having their own list of pro’s and con’s, it feels like a huge toss up in predicting who will win. Nevertheless, I take a stab at it below. 

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Surprises and Snubs: Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Oh the SAG awards. I know that the Golden Globes get a lot of flack for being out there with their choices, but this is the same voting body that is responsible for nominations like Judi Dench in Victoria and Abdul, Naomi Watts in St. Vincent and everyone’s favorite, Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train

This year we have shockers like Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scotts, no love for If Beale Street Could Talk (huge loss to Regina King this morning who was also snubbed in television), continued love for BlackKklansman, a double whammy for Emily Blunt and a Bohemian Rhapsody ensemble nomination (YIKES).

Take a look at the full list of film nominees below. 

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76th Annual Golden Globe Nominations Include “A Star Is Born” and “Black Panther”

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (otherwise known as the people who vote on the Golden Globes) have announced their crop of nominations. As usual, they marched to the beat of their own drum; and while there was nothing as shocking as The Tourist being nominated in 2010, there were some surprises.

The HFPA went hard for BlacKkKlansman, a film that needed a boost after coming out much earlier in the year, Green Book (despite its under performance at the box office) and of course, A Star Is Born. Bradley Cooper was nominated for both Director and Lead Actor (Drama), while Lady Gaga was nominated for her performance and songwriting for “Shallow” in Original Song.

Black Panther solidified itself as a formidable contender after getting a nomination in Best Motion Picture (Drama), while both Vice and Mary Poppins Returns planted their flags as late breaking contenders.

Read the full list of nominations below.

Best Motion Picture- Drama:

  • Black Panther
  • BlacKkKlansman
  • Bohemian Rhapsody
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • A Star Is Born

Best Motion Picture- Comedy or Music:

  • Crazy Rich Asians
  • The Favourite
  • Green Book
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Vice

Best Director:

  • Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
  • Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
  • Peter Farley, Green Book
  • Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
  • Adam McKay, Vice

Best Performance By an Actor in a Motion Picture- Drama:

  • Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
  • Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
  • Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
  • Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
  • John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Best Performance By an Actress in a Motion Picture- Drama

  • Glenn Close, The Wife
  • Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
  • Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
  • Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Best Performance By an Actor in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical:

  • Christian Bale, Vice
  • Lin Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
  • Viggo Mortensen, Greenbook
  • Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
  • John C. Reily, Stan & Ollie

Best Performance By an Actress in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical:

  • Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
  • Olivia Colman, The Favourite
  • Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
  • Charlize Theron, Tully
  • Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Best Supporting Performance By an Actor in a Motion Picture: 

  • Mahershala Ali, Green Book
  • Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
  • Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
  • Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best Supporting Performance By an Actress in a Motion Picture:

  • Amy Adams, Vice
  • Claire Foy, First Man
  • Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Emma Stone, The Favourite
  • Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Screenplay:

  • Roma
  • The Favourite
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Vice
  • Greenbook

Best Original Song:

  • “All the Stars,” Black Panther
  • “Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’
  • “Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War
  • “Revelation,” Boy Erased
  • “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

Best Original Score

  • A Quiet Place
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • Mary Poppins Returns

Best Animated Film

  • Incredibles 2
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mirai
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Capernaum
  • Girl
  • Never Look Away
  • Roma
  • Shoplifters