The annual Golden Globe Awards are tomorrow night. We’ve heard from the critics, and received nominations from the various guilds, but this is the first major awards body that is anointing winners.
It’s important to note that the HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) does not vote on the Oscars, and wins here have little indication as to who is going to win with the guilds or the Academy. What the Globes do, however, is indicate where the heat/buzz is in the race. Sometimes they can be an indicator of which films have the most passionate support, and that can be useful when looking at the Oscars.
Also important: Winners here can make an impression on voters with really memorable speeches. I’m not saying it has everything to do with winning an Oscar, but it has something.
So, who will win it all tomorrow night? Who could win? And more importantly, who should win? And who was snubbed? Let’s take a look at all of the nominees from the film and television categories.
Best Picture: Drama-
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
Carol was the leader in terms of nominations, though I have a feeling it will ultimately be the de-facto frontrunner, Spotlight that takes this award, despite being one of the weaker films nominated.
Who Will Win: Spotlight
Who Could Win: Carol
Who Should Win: Carol or Mad Max: Fury Road
Who Should’ve Been Here: Brooklyn is the most obvious snub here; I would have subbed that in for The Revenant or Spotlight. Ex-Machina, Creed or Sicario would have also been fantastic choices.
Best Picture: Comedy or Musical-
- The Big Short
- The Martian
With the recent surge for The Big Short, I think that’s a sign it’s has the potential to be strongly embraced here, given there are some pretenders in this category (JOY, The Martian). You could make a strong case here for The Martian given its popularity, but I think the stronger dark horse is Trainwreck.
Who Will Win: The Big Short
Who Could Win: Trainwreck
Who Should Win: Spy
Who Should’ve Been Here: Tangerine has some pretty heavy themes, but it’s a comedy throughout, and a strong one at that.
Best Actress: Drama-
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Many think Brie Larson is still the frontrunner in this category, but given Room’s waning popularity with the guilds and audiences I think Saoirse Ronan is actually the frontrunner. She’s won the most critics awards out of the nominees here, and has been charming and really promoting the movie. That being said, Room got a Best Picture nomination, while Ronan is the lone representative for her film. It’s a toss up, but Larson has a slight edge.
Can we take a moment to admire how strong of a line up this is? Though I’m not crazy about Vikander’s nomination (Charlotte Rampling would have made this a perfect category), but the other 4 are marvelous.
Who Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Who Could Win: Saoirse Ronan
Who Should Win: I would honestly be happy with any one that isn’t Alicia Vikander winning here.
Who Should’ve Been Here: Charlotte freaking Rampling’s performance in 45 Years being sunbbed in favor of Vikander’s Oscar-baity role is a travesty. The usual Globe favorite, Emily Blunt, also missed here. Though Sicario was a no show at the Globes, so I suppose that has something to do with it.
Best Actor: Drama-
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
- Will Smith, Concussion
Even when he’s lost out on the Oscar, the Globes have gone with DiCaprio, so expect him to collect a trophy here for his baitiest role yet. There is a whisper, however, that people could support Bryan Cranston given his stature as a beloved actor in the community. I think that is more applicable to the Screen Actor’s Guild, however; The Globes are notable star-f*ckers.
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Who Could Will Win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Who Should Win: I’m particularly unenthused about this category; There were so many good performances this year, and THIS is the best we could come up with? I guess I’d give it to DiCaprio based on the level of difficulty the role calls for.
Who Should’ve Been Here: Andrew Garfield gave one of the strongest performances of the year, and the best of his career, in 99 Homes. Strange his co-star Michael Shannon could find support for a weaker performance that’s competing in a stronger category. Also, Jacob Tremblay in Room?! He is the movie. And whose star rose higher this year than Michael B. Jordan’s? If you could find love for Sylvester Stallone, there was easily enough room for Jordan’s leading performance.
Best Actress: Comedy or Musical-
- Jennifer Lawrence, JOY
- Melissa McCarthy, Spy
- Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
- Maggie Smith, The Lady In The Van
- Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Many have been hyping this up as a cage match between best friends Amy Schumer and Jennifer Lawrence since the nominations were announced. Trainwreck has more respect amongst moviegoers than JOY, and 2015 was the year of Amy Schumer’s true breakout, so I think everyone can (unfortunately) agree she’ll win here.
Who Will Win: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Who Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, JOY
Who Should Win: Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Who Should’ve Been Here: Kiki Rodriguez for Tangerine, for starters, and even though she’s a more supporting role, Rose Byrne gave the best comedic performance by an actor (male or female) this year in Spy.
Best Actor: Comedy or Musical-
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Steve Carrell, The Big Short
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Al Pacino, Danny Collins
- Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
You could make a case for Carrell and Bale riding the wave for The Big Short, though I think Damon’s star power and the overall popularity of The Martian (despite it not being a comedy) gives him the edge in this completely underwhelming category.
Who Will Win: Matt Damon, The Martian
Who Could Win: Christian Bale or Steve Carrell, The Big Short
Who Should Win: Steve Carrell, The Big Short
Who Should’ve Been Here: Peter Serafionowicz and Jason Statham were incredible in Spy (certainly funnier than anyone actually nominated in this category).
- Todd Haynes, Carol
- Alejandro G. Ińárritu, The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ridley Scott, The Martian
There’s a case to be made for McCarthy’s Spotlight direction, but I think this could be Haynes’ moment. Carol is every bit a director’s vision, and it led the nomination count. But watch out for George Miller, another auteur who brought his unmistakable vision to life.
Who Will Win: Todd Haynes, Carol
Who Could Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Who Should Win: Todd Haynes or George Miller would both make fantastic winners.
Who Should’ve Been Here: This is a pretty strong category, but I would have loved to see Ryan Coogler for Creed or even Lenny Abrahamson for Room.
Best Supporting Actress:
- Jane Fonda, Youth
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo
- Alicia Vikander, Ex-Machina
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Vikander was 2015’s breakout actress, and has been winning a stunning amount of traction for this truly wonderful performance that everyone assumed would just strengthen her case for The Danish Girl. It seems it’s the other way around, thankfully. But Fonda’s star power, visibility with Grace and Frankie and fierce campaigning, however, makes her a dark horse in the waiting.
Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander, Ex-Machina
Who Could Win: Jane Fonda, Youth
Who Should Win: Alicia Vikander, Ex-Machina
Who Should’ve Been Here: The list goes ON for this category: Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria, Mya Taylor for Tangerine, Rose Byrne for Spy, Elizabeth Banks for Love & Mercy, Julie Walters for Brooklyn, Cynthia Nixon for James White… this category is so much better than what Oscar is limiting itself to.
Best Supporting Actor:
- Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Rylance has been dominating the early precursors with a strange ease, given the strength of people to choose from eligible for this category. Stats point to him as the frontrunner/winner, but watch out for Stallone, whose great performance as everyone’s favorite retired boxer could swoop in at the last second.
Who Will Win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Who Could Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Who Should Win: Paul Dano, Love & Mercy or Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Who Should’ve Been Here: BENICIO DEL TORO should be dominating this category; He blows everyone away that’s actually been receiving awards/nominations.
Best Animated Film:
- The Good Dinosaur
- Inside Out
- The Peanuts Movie
- Shaun the Sheep
I think it’s safe to say this is Inside Out‘s award to lose to absolutely no one else.
Who Will Win: Inside Out
Who Could Win: Anomalisa maybe? (Nah)
Who Should Win: Inside Out
Who Should’ve Been Here: This is a pretty good category for what was eligible.
Best Foreign Language Film:
- The Brand New Testament
- The Club
- The Fencer
- Son of Saul
Who Will Win: Son of Saul
Who Could Win: I think Son of Saul‘s buzz bars anyone else from stealing this award; It’s been the frontrunner for awhile now.
Who Should Win: Son of Saul
Who Should’ve Been Here: The Assassin.
- Emma Donoghue, Room
- Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight
- Charles Randolph & Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
- Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Expect Spotlight to pick up a win here for the strongest component of the film.
Who Will Win: Spotlight
Who Could Win: The Big Short
Who Should Win: Room or even Steve Jobs
Who Should’ve Been Here: Phyllis Nagy’s screenplay for Carol blows all of these other contenders out of the water (especially Tarantino’s).
Best Original Song:
- “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
- “One Kind of Love” from Love & Mercy
- “See You Again” from Furious 7
- “Simple Song #3” from Youth
- “Writing’s On The Wall” from Spectre
“Love Me Like You Do” and “See You Again” were 2 of the biggest hits of the year from two of the biggest films of the year, but I give the edge to the overall better song: “Love Me Like You Do.”
Who Will Win: “Love Me Like You Do”
Who Could Win: “See You Again”
Who Should Win: “Love Me Like You Do”
Who Should’ve Been Here: “Earned It” was just as essential as “Love Me Like You Do,” to Fifty Shades of Grey (and was actually a bigger hit) and would have been a great token to honor The Weeknd’s banner year. And while “Flashlight” from Pitch Perfect 2 is hardly the song of the year, it’s certainly better than “Writing’s On The Wall.”
Best Original Score:
- Cater Burwell, Carol
- Alexander Desplat, The Danish Girl
- Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
- Daniel Pemberton, Steve Jobs
- Ryuichi Sakamoto, The Revenant
Carol. That is all.
Who Will Win: Carol
Who Could Win: There’s a lot of noise around Morricone’s score, but like, The Hateful Eight is garbage, so?
Who Should Win: Carol
Who Should’ve Been Here: The score for Sicario is up there with Carol as one of the best of the year. And though I wasn’t as high on the movie as everyone else was, It Follows had a great score that was absolutely essential to the movie, and would’ve made an inspired choice here.
Best Television Series: Drama-
- Game of Thrones
- Mr. Robot
Who Will Win: Game of Thrones
Who Could Win: Empire
Who Should Win: Empire or Mr. Robot
Who Should’ve Been Here: Mad Men had a brilliant final season that should’ve been honored here, while The Leftovers had one of the best seasons on television this year.
Best Television Series: Comedy-
- Mozart in the Jungle
- Orange Is The New Black
- Silicon Valley
Veep continues to improve with each season, but Transparent is incredibly popular with a lot of people; the HFPA gave it this award last year. Still, I think Veep, which received its first nomination here outside of Julia Louise-Dreyfus’ performance, will be the winner for its best season yet.
Who Will Win: Veep
Who Could Win: Transparent
Who Should Win: Veep
Who Should’ve Been Here: Broad City would have been a great and inspired choice here, seeing as it is one of the best comedies on TV right now.
Best Actress, Television: Drama-
- Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
- Viola Davis, How To Get Away With Murder
- Eva Green, Penny Dreadful
- Taraji P. Henson, Empire
- Robin Wright, House of Cards
Davis has won the SAG and the Emmy for this role already, so a Globe can’t be far off. But Empire is such a hit, I could see the Globes unable to resist anointing Henson for creating an iconic character.
Who Will Win: Viola Davis, How To Get Away With Murder
Who Could Win: Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Who Should Win: Davis and Henson are great choices for winners. It’s a toss up between the two. Such different, varied acting choices.
Who Should’ve Been Here: This is a pretty stacked, and strong category.
Best Actor, Television: Drama-
- Jon Hamm, Mad Men
- Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
- Wagner Moura, Narcos
- Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
- Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Hamm finally won an Emmy for playing Don Draper over the course of Mad Men‘s 7 seasons. He’s won here before, so I could see them giving him a win here as a send off. But the Globes are notorious for crowning new blood in the television categories, so a win for Rami Malek isn’t too far off either.
Who Will Win: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Who Could Win: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Who Should Win: That it comes down to Hamm or Malek is a pretty good situation; Either would make worthy winners
Who Should’ve Been Here: Any of the men from Empire, especially breakout star Jussie Smollett. Justin Theroux from The Leftovers was given some of the heaviest acting challenges of the year, and pulled it all off.
Best Actress, Television: Comedy-
- Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
- Jamie Lee Curits, Scream Queens
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
- Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
- Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Rodriguez surprisingly won over the presumed frontrunner, Dreyfus last year. This race could go any number of ways given the unpredictability of the Globes, but I think Dreyfus is a safe bet here, especially since she hasn’t won a Golden Globe (for this role) before.
Who Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Who Could Win: Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Who Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Gina Rodriguez or Lily Tomlin would be great choices.
Who Should’ve Been Here: Lisa Kudrow’s titan of a performance in the outstanding The Comeback deserved a notice here. Also, Abbi and Ilana from Broad City, and Fresh Off The Boat’s Constance Wu.
Best Actor, Television: Comedy-
- Aziz Ansari, Master of None
- Gael Garćia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
- Rob Lowe, The Grinder
- Patrick Stewart, Blunt Talk
- Jeffrey Tambor Transparent
Tambor and Transparent have been very high-profile since they both won last year, so I think a repeat is inevitable. Ansari, however, is both the star and creator of his show. The Globes could honor that feat here, as they tend to gravitate towards newbies in the television categories.
Who Will Win: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Who Could Win: Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Who Should Win: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Who Should’ve Been Here: Robert Michael Morris’ Mickey Dean is one of the best, and underrated, aspects of the hysterical The Comeback.
Best Television Limited Series:
- American Crime
- American Horror Story: Hotel
- Flesh and Bone
- Wolf Hall
I suppose the uptick in quality between last season and this season could give American Horror Story something of an edge, but Fargo was so crazy good this past season that anything but Fargo winning would be a crime.
Who Will Win: Fargo
Who Could Win: American Horror Story: Hotel
Who Should Win: Fargo
Who Should’ve Been Here: N/A
Best Actress, Limited Series:
- Kristen Dunst, Fargo
- Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel
- Sarah Hay, Flesh and Bone
- Felicity Huffman, American Crime
- Queen Latifah, Bessie
There have been some musings about Lady Gaga winning this award for her surprisingly commendable portrayal as The Countess, but besides slipping in and out of a faux accent and staring intensely at other characters, there’s not much for her to do. Kirsten Dunst, by comparison, has far more to do as Peggy on Fargo, and delivers the performance of her career, and the year. It’s a tragicomic masterpiece that demands a win here. I hope you’re listening, HFPA.
Who Will Win: Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
Who Could Win: Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel
Who Should Win: Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
Who Should’ve Been Here: Sarah Paulson does far more with less on American Horror Story, and remains frustratingly underrated.
Best Actor, Limited Series:
- Idris Elba, Luther
- Oscar Isaac, Show Me A Hero
- David Oyelowo, Nightingale
- Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
- Patrick Wilson, Fargo
While I love Wilson on Fargo, Oyelowo delivered a one man show with his performance in Nightingale, one that was overlooked at the Emmy’s and deserves recognition here. However, I think Elba’s status as a double nominee and overall star power makes him the obvious choice for the win.
Who Will Win: Idris Elba, Luther
Who Could Win: Patrick Wilson, Fargo
Who Should Win: David Oyelowo, Nightingale
Who Should’ve Been Here: Dennis O’Hare has been the highlight of the otherwise uneven American Horror Story: Hotel.
Best Supporting Actress, Television Series:
- Uno Aduba, Orange Is The New Black
- Joanne Foggatt, Downton Abbey
- Regina King, American Crime
- Judith Light, Transparent
- Maura Tierney, The Affair
The obvious choice is Uzo Aduba, but the surprise Emmy winner Regina King makes for a bold dark horse choice.
Who Will Win: Uzo Aduba, Orange Is The New Black
Who Could Win: Regina King, American Crime
Who Should Win: A win for Aduba would be nothing less than deserving. But this is King’s first nomination for what was a very excellent performance. She has been a longtime character actress who has had a breakout year with her unexpected Emmy win, and an equally great part on The Leftovers. And because Aduba has already won here, I’m inclined to cheer for King.
Who Should’ve Been Here: You could have just filled this category with women from The Leftovers: Ann Dowd, Liv Tyler, Margaret Qualley, Regina King and Carrie Coon would have all made great nominees here. Strong category. Similarly, Anna Chlumsky from Veep had that one standout scene that still is so fresh in my mind as one of the most hilarious moments of the year.
Best Supporting Actor, Television Series:
- Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
- Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall
- Ben Mendelson, Bloodline
- Tobias Menzies, Outlander
- Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Who Will Win: Ben Mendelson, Bloodline
Who Could Win: Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Who Should Win: Ben Mendelson, Bloodline
Who Should’ve Been Here: N/A