It’s not easy to predict the Golden Globes, but somebody’s gotta do it. Notoriously, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association nominates and votes for what they like in a way that differs from groups like the Screen Actors Guild or the Academy Awards. Sometimes they make bold, daring choices; in 2014 they nominated Ava DuVernay for Best Director after she was ignored by the Academy and Directors Guild. They also ignored the Oscar campaign for both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander to ridiculously be placed in Supporting Actress for Carol and The Danish Girl, nominating them both in Best Actress instead. But sometimes they nominate films like The Tourist and stars Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp in the Comedy Actor/Actress categories. 

So yeah, it’s not easy to figure out which way the Globes will swing this year. Especially in a year with no sure Best Picture frontrunner. And the fact that both Get Out and Lady Bird are separated from Three Billboards and The Shape of Water doesn’t help clear anything up. But that’s what makes this fun, because anything is possible.  

Best Motion Picture – Drama: 

• Call Me By Your Name 
• Dunkirk
• The Post 
• The Shape of Water 
• Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

As has been said all season long, there has been no true frontrunner in the Best Picture race. Even last year when momentum seemed split it came down to three films. Here, it feels like any one of these films could be our winner. 

One quick look at their track record over the past several years indicates that they tend to give this film to either the front runner (3/7) or the also ran (4/7). Seeing as Lady Bird is over in the Comedy category, I think it’s going to come down to two films who showed up strong here. The Shape of Water led the nomination count with seven nods, so it’s clear the HFPA adores this film in a similar way they adored Atonement a few years ago; both are sweeping, period love stories. But something tells me not to discount Three Billboards, which managed six nominations and seems to be on an upswing lately with the Academy. Despite a divisive reaction, it did manage to win the top prize at TIFF, signaling that it functions on some level as a consensus title. They did also really enjoy In Bruges a few years ago (which Martin McDonagh also wrote and directed). 

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
Watch Out For: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should’ve Been Here: Okja

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical: 

• The Disaster Artist 
• Get Out
• The Greatest Showman
• I, Tonya
• Lady Bird

Once you look past the bizarre inclusion of The Greatest Showman (guess they needed one musical to round out the category), this is just as competitive as the Drama category. Get Out is the biggest film here in terms of acclaim and box office, but only managed one other nomination for actor Daniel Kaluuya. The case could be made for I, Tonya I suppose, but I believe that’s a bigger threat in the Actress/Supporting Actress category. That leaves us with Lady Bird and The Disaster Artist. Of the two, Lady Bird has the best chance at repeating with the Academy whereas The Disaster Artist is a better bid for James Franco (more on that in a bit). All of their choices in the past several years have been major Oscar contenders in one way or another (La La Land last year, The Martian before that and Grand Budapest in 2014) which is why I think Lady Bird is a safe bet here. 

Will Win: Lady Bird
Should Win: Lady Bird
Watch Out For: Get Out
Should’ve Been Here: Girls Trip

Best Director: 

• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
• Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
• Steven Spielberg, The Post 

The exclusion of both Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig and the inclusion of Ridley Scott was a surprise to most, though when you think about it, a classic Globes move. Unlike the Oscars, the Globes are much less willing to split between the corresponding Best Picture (Drama) and Director categories, but based on their voting history I’m predicting a split this year. As the film with the most nominations, my money is on The Shape of Water, which continues del Toro’s streak of immersive directorial choices. There does, however, seem to be some wind building behind Scott who went through a lot to reshoot and re-edit his film with Christopher Plummer, following the Kevin Spacey assault stories. 

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro
Watch Out For: Ridley Scott
Should’ve Been Here: Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Performance By An Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama: 

• Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game 
• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Meryl Streep, The Post 
• Michelle Williams, All the Money In the World

Sally Hawkins and Saoirse Ronan have been going back and forth all season long scooping up various Best Actress prizes, which is why I think this is Hawkins’, who is a previous Golden Globe winner for Happy Go Lucky, best chance at a major win. Not only is her biggest competition over in the Comedy category, but voters may respond to the level of difficulty of her performance; she commands your attention without uttering a single word. But watch out for Frances McDormand, who feels just as likely as Hawkins to reign supreme here.

Will Win: Sally Hawkins
Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Watch Out For: Frances McDormand
Should’ve Been Here: Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

Best Performance By An Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama:

• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Tom Hanks, The Post
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Gary Oldman is probably going to win his first Academy Award for playing Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour under pounds of prosthetics and makeup. And despite Chalamet’s dominance with the early prizes, he’s probably going to win all of the televised awards as well, starting with the Golden Globes. Do I think there’s a slight chance Chalamet could pull this off? Sure. Call Me By Your Name did manage additional nominations in Picture and Supporting Actor whereas Oldman is the lone flag bearer for Darkest Hour. That could mean something or nothing. Last year int the Drama Actress category, Isabelle Huppert usurped presumed winner Natalie Portman in what was deemed a bit of a surprise. Huppert’s film had an additional nomination (Best Foreign Language Film, which it won) whereas Portman was the lone nominee for Jackie. Not quite the same, but if they like the film enough… (Oldman is probably still going to win this).

Will Win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet
Watch Out For: Gary Oldman
Should’ve Been Here: John Cho, Columbus 

Best Performance By An Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical:

• Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
• Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker 
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird 
• Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Saoirse Ronan feels like a safe choice here given her early-season dominance and the popularity of Lady Bird. She’s been everywhere this year, and has been utterly charming in every interview or publicity event. Not to mention the level of range she’s displayed during her career after bursting on the scene as a child with Atonement, reaching full leading lady status with Brooklyn and now Lady Bird. 

On the other hand, Margot Robbie feels like a classic messy Globes choice that could throw everything off kilter. She’s a big name movie star who landed the role of a lifetime in a buzzy (not) biopic. She’s definitely one to watch out for. 

Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan
Watch Out For: Margot Robbie
Should’ve Been Here: Regina Hall, Girls Trip

Best Performance By An Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical:

• Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes 
• Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
• James Franco, The Disaster Artist
• Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman 
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Had Get Out had a stronger showing, Daniel Kaluuya might’ve been a bigger threat to win here. But I think it will come down to James Franco (who has almost won as many prizes this year as Timothée Chalamet) and Steve Carrell. Both are playing real people, both have previously won Golden Globes. I give the edge to Franco, whose film has better reviews and box office and gives the better performance overall. This actually might be the easiest category to call of the night. 

Will Win: James Franco
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Watch Out For: Steve Carrell
Should Have Been Here: Kumail Nanjiani

Best Performance By A Supporting Actress in any Motion Picture:

• Mary J. Blige, Mudbound 
• Hong Chau, Downsizing
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

I’ve been going back and forth about whether this is Laurie Metcalf’s or Allison Janney’s to lose for awhile now. Both are beloved television actresses delivering acclaimed performances in major films this year. While Metcalf has been performing well with the early prizes, I think Janney’s campy and baity turn (that wig! that bird!) gives her an edge with groups like the Golden Globes, but I don’t think she has the huge lead that we thought she would have early on. 

Will Win: Allison Janney
Should Win: Hong Chau
Watch Out For: Laurie Metcalf
Should’ve Been Here: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

Best Performance By A Supporting Actress in any Motion Picture:

• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World 
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Willem Dafoe has steamrolled his way to a win and coveted frontrunner status all season long. It’s hard to imagine anyone snatching this from him, though if someone does I imagine it’s Christopher Plummer, not Sam Rockwell, whose nomination came as somewhat of a surprise. Not only does he play a real life person, but he came into replace Kevin Spacey at the very last second. Last year, the Globes went with Aaron Taylor Johnson instead of frontrunner Mahershala Ali; whose to say they won’t do something wacky like that again this year? 

Will Win: Willem Dafoe
Should Win: Richard Jenkins
Watch Out For: Christopher Plummer
Should’ve Been Here: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture:

• Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird 
• Liz Hannah & Josh Singer, The Post
• Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game

Despite being a terribly uneven screenplay, Three Billboards has won a lot of acclaim for “capturing the anger of the moment” (perhaps I saw a different movie?). McDonagh feels like a safe bet for this narrative alone, but I wouldn’t count out Aaron Sorkin who has won this prize twice in the last couple of years out of eight nominations.

Will Win: Martin McDonagh
Should Win: Greta Gerwig
Watch Out For: Aaron Sorkin
Should’ve Been Here: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name

Best Original Score – Motion Picture: 

• Carter Burwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
• Johnny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
• John Williams, The Post
• Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk

The swirling, whimsical and occasionally foreboding music that scores The Shape of Water feels right up the Golden Globes’ alley. But I wouldn’t be too surprised if Johnny Greenwood, who has been sort of a frontrunner in this category, won for his work in Phantom Thread. 

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat
Should Win: Alexandre Desplat
Watch Out For: Johnny Greenwood

Best Original Song – Motion Picture: 

• “Home,” Ferdinand
• “Mighty River,” Mudbound
• “Remember Me,” Coco
• “The Star,” The Star
• “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

Will Win: “Remember Me”
Should Win: “Remember Me”
Watch Our For: “This Is Me”

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language: 

• A Fantastic Woman
• First They Killed My Father
• In the Fade
• Loveless
• The Square

Will Win: The Square
Should Win: A Fantastic Woman
Watch Out For: First They Killed My Father

Best Motion Picture – Animated: 

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

Will Win: Coco
Should Win: Coco
Watch Out For: The Boss Baby