It’s not easy to predict the Golden Globes, but somebody’s gotta do it. Notoriously, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association nominates and votes for what they like in a way that differs from groups like the Screen Actors Guild or the Academy Awards. Sometimes they make bold, daring choices; in 2014 they nominated Ava DuVernay for Best Director after she was ignored by the Academy and Directors Guild. They also ignored the Oscar campaign for both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander to ridiculously be placed in Supporting Actress for Carol and The Danish Girl, nominating them both in Best Actress instead. But sometimes they nominate films like The Tourist and stars Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp in the Comedy Actor/Actress categories.
So yeah, it’s not easy to figure out which way the Globes will swing this year. Especially in a year with no sure Best Picture frontrunner. And the fact that both Get Out and Lady Bird are separated from Three Billboards and The Shape of Water doesn’t help clear anything up. But that’s what makes this fun, because anything is possible.
One of the most bizarre things about this whole awards season is the over performance of Nocturnal Animals and Deadpool. In the case of the former, it won major nominations from the Golden Globes and one award for Aaron Taylor-Johnson over the presumed winner Mahershala Ali. This morning, The BAFTA’s (British Academy of Film and Television Awards) nominated the film in categories like Best Picture, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor. In the case of Deadpool, the film received nominations from the WGA and PGA, highly predictive guilds when it comes to the Oscars.
Just how many awards is Damien Chazelle’s La La Land going to win tomorrow night at the Golden Globes? It’s a film that seems tailor made for this particularly group, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and benefits from the split by genre in Motion Picture awards. It will no doubt win Best Film and Actress, but can it go all the way in categories like Screenplay, Score, Song, Actor and Director too?
The other big question heading into tomorrow night is who will emerge victorious in the Drama categories: Manchester By The Sea or Moonlight? All three of these films are the big names heading into the Oscar nominations, so who can make the biggest mark prior to nomination day?
Let’s take a look at all of the major categories.
The Screen Actor’s Guild revealed their nominations this morning, and clearly had a lot of love for Moonlight, Fences, Manchester By The Sea, Hidden Figures and the Viggo Mortensen led indie Captain Fantastic; all were present in SAG’s Best Ensemble Cast line up, which is their Best Picture prize so to speak.
As they always do, the Globes threw us some curveballs. Nocturnal Animals surprised in a number of categories (Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Director) in a way I don’t think it will repeat with future awards. Hacksaw Ridge and Hell or High Water showed their continued strength, with the former getting both a Picture and a Director nomination.
Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins and 20th Century Women were all helped by the Musical or Comedy categories (which I predict will swing in La La Land‘s direction) paving the way for a battle between Manchester By The Sea and Moonlight in the Drama categories.
With two of the presumed big names (Annette Bening and Emma Stone) over in Best Actress Comedy or Musical, that left two slots open in the Drama categories. Both Portman and Huppert showed up, as did Amy Adams, Ruth Negga and Jessica Chastain. Two of those ladies won’t repeat as we near closer to SAG and Oscar, but who will it be?
The Globes will air on Sunday January 8th, hosted by Jimmy Fallon on ABC.
See the full list of nominations below.
It was clear that the Broadcast Film Critics loved La La Land; they gave it the most nominations of any film with 12, and ended up winning eight including the top prizes: Picture and Director while picking up a lot of the below the line prizes in Editing, Production Design and Cinematography. Many have predicted La La Land will sweep in a similar fashion at the Oscars. And while it’s true the Broadcast critics don’t vote on the Oscars, they are more predictive and align more accurately with the Oscars than any other precursor group, including the Globes and even Screen Actors Guild (sometimes).
Where La La Land missed out, however, was in Best Actress which surprisingly went to Natalie Portman. After suffering from missed citations from recent critics groups, Portman roared back into the race and Jackie picked up additional awards in Costumes and Hair & Makeup. Only two actresses in the past 6 years that have won this award missed out on winning the Oscar; though many were quick to declare this a cakewalk for Emma Stone, it’s clear Best Actress is still a two woman race.
The other two frontrunners, Moonlight and Manchester By The Sea, had their moments as well. Mahershala Ali won yet another trophy for Supporting Actor with the cast winning the group’s ensemble prize. Casey Affleck beat out his biggest competition in Denzel Washington for Best Actor, while Kenneth Lonergan tied in Original Screenplay with Damien Chazelle’s screenplay for La La Land. After winning some notices with the critics, Michelle Williams lost Supporting Actress to Viola Davis, who has begun what I suspect will be a clean sweep of the televised awards. Look out for her next conquest: the Golden Globes (nominations are announced tomorrow).
Read the full list of (film) winners below.
Moonlight beat out Oscar frontrunner La La Land with the Los Angeles Film Critics. The film won Best Picture, while Barry Jenkins continued his perfect streak after winning with the Gothams, NBR and New York critics by picking up a Best Director trophy here, with La La Land‘s Chazelle coming in second place. Continue reading
The New York Film Critics announced their slate of winners today, the first of the critics groups and organizations that announce awards ahead of groups like the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild. And while they don’t hold the influence guilds like SAG do (seeing as they are members of the Academy and not just critics), they can be important to many Oscar hopefuls in jump starting a campaign or adding fuel to one’s tank.
The big story here is that Manchester By The Sea and Moonlight went head to head with one another, each earning three awards while the group went and named La La Land as the year’s Best Film. As three of the highest rated films of the year, that’s not exactly a surprise; it may just come down to these three films when all is said and done.