One of the most bizarre things about this whole awards season is the over performance of Nocturnal Animals and Deadpool. In the case of the former, it won major nominations from the Golden Globes and one award for Aaron Taylor-Johnson over the presumed winner Mahershala Ali. This morning, The BAFTA’s (British Academy of Film and Television Awards) nominated the film in categories like Best Picture, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor. In the case of Deadpool, the film received nominations from the WGA and PGA, highly predictive guilds when it comes to the Oscars.
I don’t know how we got here, but it would seem like The Revenant has got the best chance at winning Best Picture at the Oscars.
The film showed a surprising strength after leading the nomination count with The Academy last month, but there was still a strong consensus around Spotlight and The Big Short. And while those two films each have a big award from an important guild (SAG and the PGA respectively), The Revenant’s unexpected win with the DGA and the BAFTAs makes the heat around it seem that much stronger.
Leonardo Dicaprio’s star power is not be underestimated; He’s been cleaning up this awards season due to a lack of competition and the “it’s time” narrative. But there seems to be an extreme enthusiasm for the film outside of Leo’s work, and director Iñárritu’s win for Birdman last year doesn’t seem to be slowing the momentum down whatsoever.
It’s clearly between The Big Short, Spotlight and The Revenant for the win; a photo finish. Each have their appeal, but if you had to ask me which film stood the best chance at winning right now, I’d say The Revenant. It has the actors, the directors, and the various crafts behind it. And while there’s a case to be made for Mad Max: Fury Road, I’m not sure there’s been enough enthusiasm from the guilds (in terms of wins) to justify that theory.
There’s always room for surprises however; I think it’s been too crazy of a year to have The Revenant take home the gold. When I say it’s going to win, that’s what the stats would suggest. My heart tells me Mad Max: Fury Road is going to win due to a 3-way split. There’s no sure way to say with how spread out the awards have been. This will be one of those years where it won’t be revealed until Oscar night.
Take a look below at the full list of winners from the BAFTAs below.
The British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) nominations are the last set of nominations we’ll hear from before the Academy’s set next Thursday morning. Save for some wild card nominations (Amy Adams in Big Eyes) they’re usually a very good indicator of where Oscar is headed.
Some surprises here: Carol and Bridge of Spies led the nomination count with 9 each. After underperforming with some of the guilds, this is great news for Carol; Hopefully this translates into the same kind of success with Oscar (though their recognizing Rooney Mara in Supporting Actress is EXTREMELY frustrating).
The Big Short‘s late surge is unstoppable, and a bit bewildering because the reception for the film early on was muted. But it landing a Best Picture and Best Director nomination here essentially cements its status as one of the top films.
Mad Max: Fury Road underperformed here, however, it’s important to note it snagged a lot of tech/below the line nominations. This could translate into support with the bigger categories with the Oscars (American productions like this film tend to get snubbed out of the major categories with BAFTA anyway).
JOY was completely ignored here, thankfully, though I expect at least one or two lone nominations from Oscar just because they love David O.Russell.
Alicia Vikander could potentially be a double Oscar nominee. She’s unexpectedly been winning a lot of traction for Ex-Machina (a film that’s been performing very well in general as of late) but both of her performances in that film and in The Danish Girl were nominated here. While I
think hope that they’ll pass on the film entirely, it’s a possibility after today.
Last tidbit: HOORAY FOR BENICIO DEL TORO FINALLY LANDING A MAJOR NOMINATION FOR SICARIO.
Also, where in the WORLD is Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years?! (okay, I’ll stop now).
Take a look at the full list of nominations below. The winners of the BAFTAs will be announced on February 14th.