I don’t know how we got here, but it would seem like The Revenant has got the best chance at winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

The film showed a surprising strength after leading the nomination count with The Academy last month, but there was still a strong consensus around Spotlight and The Big Short. And while those two films each have a big award from an important guild (SAG and the PGA respectively), The Revenant’s unexpected win with the DGA and the BAFTAs makes the heat around it seem that much stronger.

Leonardo Dicaprio’s star power is not be underestimated; He’s been cleaning up this awards season due to a lack of competition and the “it’s time” narrative. But there seems to be an extreme enthusiasm for the film outside of Leo’s work, and director Iñárritu’s win for Birdman last year doesn’t seem to be slowing the momentum down whatsoever.

It’s clearly between The Big Short, Spotlight and The Revenant for the win; a photo finish. Each have their appeal, but if you had to ask me which film stood the best chance at winning right now, I’d say The Revenant. It has the actors, the directors, and the various crafts behind it. And while there’s a case to be made for Mad Max: Fury Road, I’m not sure there’s been enough enthusiasm from the guilds (in terms of wins) to justify that theory.

There’s always room for surprises however; I think it’s been too crazy of a year to have The Revenant take home the gold. When I say it’s going to win, that’s what the stats would suggest. My heart tells me Mad Max: Fury Road is going to win due to a 3-way split. There’s no sure way to say with how spread out the awards have been. This will be one of those years where it won’t be revealed until Oscar night.

Take a look below at the full list of winners from the BAFTAs below.

Best Picture: The Revenant 

Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant 

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant 

Best Actress: Brie Larson, Room

Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight

Best Adapted Screenplay: Adam McKay & Charles Randolph, The Big Short 

Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant 

Outstanding British Film: Brooklyn

Best Documentary: Amy

Best Original Music: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

Best Sound: Lon Bender, Chris Duesterdiek, Martin Hernández, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor & Randy Thom, The Revenant 

Best Production Design: Colin Gibson & Lisa Thompson, Mad Max: Fury Road 

Best VFX: Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh & Neal Scanlan,  Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Costume Design: Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup & Hair: Damian Martin & Lesley Vanderwalt, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Editing: Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Foreign Language Film: Argentina 

Best Animated Film: Inside Out

Rising Star Award: John Boyega