One of the most bizarre things about this whole awards season is the over performance of Nocturnal Animals and Deadpool. In the case of the former, it won major nominations from the Golden Globes and one award for Aaron Taylor-Johnson over the presumed winner Mahershala Ali. This morning, The BAFTA’s (British Academy of Film and Television Awards) nominated the film in categories like Best Picture, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor. In the case of Deadpool, the film received nominations from the WGA and PGA, highly predictive guilds when it comes to the Oscars. 

Now it’s true that every year there are films that land some nominations from groups like the guilds and BAFTA’s that are not nominated in Best Picture on Oscar nomination morning (think of Straight Outta Compton and Sicario last year). What’s truly puzzling, however, is that both of these two films keep popping up like this. Of the two, however, it’s Deadpool that stands the best shot at being nominated. The BAFTA’s do overlap with the Academy, but not to the same capacity that the Producer’s Guild does. 

Your PGA 10 are: 

• Arrival
• Deadpool
• Fences
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• Hidden Figures
• La La Land
• Lion
• Manchester By The Sea
• Moonlight

The PGA nominates 10 films, which is different than the way the Oscars do it (anywhere from five to 10 films could be nominated with the way they vote). So there’s a good chance that not all of the films recognized here will make the Oscar shortlist, especially based on the fact that their Best Picture category hasn’t included 10 nominees since 2010; nine were nominated in 2011, 2012 and 2013 while eight were nominated in 2014 and 2015. With the actors (SAG) being the largest voting block in the Academy followed by the Producers, the films that have received top nominations from both groups and are locked in for Best Picture are:

• Fences
• Hidden Figures
• Manchester By The Sea
• Moonlight

After that, you have films recognized by the PGA that were nominated at SAG but not in Best Ensemble: 

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Lion

So there are nine films, and based on the past couple years that looks like a pretty solid guess at what our Best Picture will look like. It would be really easy to say Deadpool knocks out something like Lion or even Hacksaw Ridge with this latest development, but I think Deadpool‘s best shot at Oscar nominations is in Adapted Screenplay . Less likely, but still realistic is Best Actor for Ryan Reynolds who has been campaigning very hard despite the fact his film was released last February. Besides, he’s a big movie star who has a lot of admirers, and the story about how hard he worked to get the film made is something a lot of actors will respect. If anyone loses their spot to Reynolds, it’s Viggo Mortensen or Andrew Garfield who are in films that aren’t as passionately supported as their fellow nominees: Denzel Washington, Casey Affleck and Ryan Gosling. 

As for Nocturnal Animals, I think the superfluous love it has received from BAFTA is mind boggling, but ultimately not something that will translate at the Oscars. But I do think it’s time we start talking about the very real possibility of Academy Award Nominee Aaron Taylor-Johnson, whose back to back Globe win and nomination this morning could mean he gets a nomination over someone like newcomer Lucas Hedges from Manchester By The Sea. 

Read my official, updated predictions here, and check out the full list of BAFTA nominations here.