In an unexpected twist, “The Big Short” won the top prize at the Producer’s Guild Awards.

The race for Best Picture has been whittled down to The Revenant (which led the Oscar nominations, and won Best Picture at the Golden Globes), Spotlight (the critic’s choice) and The Big Short, with a strong contingent for Mad Max (which came second to The Revenant in nominations).

This is a very huge win, as no film has won Best Picture without the PGA. Even in 2013 when both 12 Years A Slave and Gravity tied for the award, the former went on to win.

Though in a year as crazy as this, I suppose anything can happen. Not winning the PGA isn’t an official death sentence to your Best Picture hopes; Little Miss Sunshine won the award back in 2006 and lost the Oscar to The Departed. The Aviator and Brokeback Mountain also won the PGA, and lost the Oscar. But more often than not, the winner goes on to win the Oscar, especially in recent years.

The Big Short is also up for the Screen Actor’s Guild Award’s Best Ensemble prize (their equivalent to Best Picture) next week, and the Director’s Guild Award. If it wins one, or both, of these, I’d say it’s our Best Picture winner.

Other winners included Amy in the Documentary category, and Inside Out over in Animated. Those two have been steamrolling with the precursor awards all season. I’d say their fates are sealed as winners.