Oscar Predictions: Who Will, Could, And Should Win?

After a wild ride of an awards season that started out with so much hope and promise, only to end with major disappointment, Oscar night is just about here. Yes, Leonardo DiCaprio is assured his elusive first trophy, and unfortunately it’s come down to The Revenant and Mad Max with some heat from Spotlight.

Yes, the races have solidified pretty quickly; there’s a general consensus of who’s winning. But that doesn’t mean were in for a total snooze fest, right? (I can hold out some hope).

So, let’s get on with putting a cap on this season already by looking at the major races. Who will, could and should win? And who got snubbed?

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“The Revenant” Wins Big At The BAFTAS

I don’t know how we got here, but it would seem like The Revenant has got the best chance at winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

The film showed a surprising strength after leading the nomination count with The Academy last month, but there was still a strong consensus around Spotlight and The Big Short. And while those two films each have a big award from an important guild (SAG and the PGA respectively), The Revenant’s unexpected win with the DGA and the BAFTAs makes the heat around it seem that much stronger.

Leonardo Dicaprio’s star power is not be underestimated; He’s been cleaning up this awards season due to a lack of competition and the “it’s time” narrative. But there seems to be an extreme enthusiasm for the film outside of Leo’s work, and director Iñárritu’s win for Birdman last year doesn’t seem to be slowing the momentum down whatsoever.

It’s clearly between The Big Short, Spotlight and The Revenant for the win; a photo finish. Each have their appeal, but if you had to ask me which film stood the best chance at winning right now, I’d say The Revenant. It has the actors, the directors, and the various crafts behind it. And while there’s a case to be made for Mad Max: Fury Road, I’m not sure there’s been enough enthusiasm from the guilds (in terms of wins) to justify that theory.

There’s always room for surprises however; I think it’s been too crazy of a year to have The Revenant take home the gold. When I say it’s going to win, that’s what the stats would suggest. My heart tells me Mad Max: Fury Road is going to win due to a 3-way split. There’s no sure way to say with how spread out the awards have been. This will be one of those years where it won’t be revealed until Oscar night.

Take a look below at the full list of winners from the BAFTAs below.

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“Spotlight” Gets A Boost At The SAG Awards

After losing Best Picture at the Producer’s Guild Awards last week, Spotlight got a bump after winning the top prize over The Big Short at the Screen Actor’s Guild this evening.

Seeing as the actors are the largest voting body in the Academy, this is pretty substantial. However, the Best Ensemble prize matches with Oscar’s Best Picture choice less than the PGA’s award has in the past. Films like The Help have won with SAG and gone on to lose the Oscar, so it isn’t always a sure thing.

It’ll be interesting to see how the other guilds vote, and how much of the absence of Mad Max here plays out with the Academy.

In the other categories, Brie Larson, Alicia Vikander and Leonardo DiCaprio predictably won, while Idris Elba unexpectedly (and deservedly) won in Supporting Actor.

Though he was snubbed for an Oscar, it was his first major win of the season (and his first of two wins tonight). Presumed frontrunner, Sylvester Stallone, was not nominated tonight. Though it did rub salt in the wound of Elba’s snub, I was happy to see him get a win. He’s clearly beloved by his peers, and it’s time the industry as a whole took notice of that.

Take a look at the full list of winners from tonight, below.

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Academy Award Nominations: Another Year Of #OscarsSoWhite

I expected a few upsets with this morning’s Academy Award nominations. But more than anything, I’m just disappointed. This was such a groundbreaking year for film. You had Mad Max: Fury RoadCarolSicarioTangerine… the list goes on. And while Mad Max: Fury Road was one of the nomination leaders, there was less to be excited about over in a lot of the other categories.

For starters, let’s talk about the most glaring offense. After The Academy had controversially nominated all white actors in the leading and supporting categories last year, they followed the same trend this year; There’s not a person of color to be found among your 20 acting nominees. And while many will say that contenders such as Michael B. Jordan from Creed and Mya Taylor from Tangerine were long shots, I say that’s not an excuse. There were more than a dozen surprises this morning from the various categories that included many names we didn’t expect to hear this morning. Lenny Abrahamson scored a Best Director nomination over Ridley Scott, who had more support from the various precursors and guilds. Mark Ruffalo, despite not receiving an individual Screen Actors Guild nomination, or really any important precursor awards, landed a nomination in Best Supporting Actor over one of the presumed frontrunners, Idris Elba from the fantastic Beasts of No Nation. Oscar Isaac, one of this year’s breakout stars, was fantastic in Ex Machina, Benicio del Toro delivered one of the best performances of the year in Sicario and Straight Outta Compton found no love in either the acting or Best Picture categories, despite having support from the guilds.

They clearly vote for what they like, and what they like is becoming increasingly evident with each year. Jennifer Lawrence for JOY, REALLY? As someone who is a die hard film buff, and has grown up watching the Oscars, this is something that matters to me. In hindsight, The Academy Awards are not the most important thing in the world. But as our world, and our film industry, grows to be more diverse, so should the awards. We hear all the time that they’re constantly adding new members and trying to diversify their membership, but where is that reflected in the awards? Though I was not so high on the film itself, I’m glad Alejandro G. Iñárritu, last year’s winner, found his way into Best Director, but that was about the only major nomination landed by a person of color this year.

Some more glaring omissions to discuss: Carol, easily one of the best films of the year, was omitted from Best Picture. Rooney Mara from Carol and Alicia Vikander from The Danish Girl were both nominated in Supporting Actress, despite the high profile backlash (and just common sense) that both are the leads of their films. Vikander’s nomination comes especially as a shock, because she had a perfectly great supporting performance from Ex Machina they could have rewarded, one that was picking up steam in recent weeks.

All I’m saying, is that The Academy is very clearly out of touch and has turned into a dog and pony show. This is far from news, excuse me trying to make sense of this mess.

The full list of nominations are below. The winners of the Academy Awards will be announced February 28th.

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WGA Nominations Include “Steve Jobs” and “Trainwreck”

The Writer’s Guild of America released their list of nominations, following yesterday’s announcement from the PGA.

Straight Outta Compton and Sicario continued their impressive guild performances, despite a lack of precursor support, by receiving nominations. Also surprising (a good kind) was the inclusion of Carol after being shut out by the PGA. Hopefully it was just an oversight on their part, and will be embraced by the Academy (as it deserves to).

A number of scripts were deemed ineligible to compete here, including Ex-MachinaThe Hateful Eight99 HomesInside OutSon of SaulRoomBrooklynSuffragette45 Years and Me, Earl, And The Dying Girl. Though their ineligibility here does not mean they are barred from consideration from the Academy.

See the full list of nominees below.

The winners will be announced on February 13th.

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National Society of Film Critics Announce Winners

The National Society of Film Critics are the last of the big precursor awards before we get into the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

At this point, it’s really tough to pin down any of the frontrunners in the categories. It’s been a really tough year; All of the awards have been pretty spread out between CarolMad Max: Fury Road and Spotlight. A lot of the higher profile contenders (JoyThe RevenantThe Danish Girl) not dominating in the way we previously expected. They could still resonate with the Academy, however, because as well all know, the critics do not vote on the Oscars.

In any event, the NSFC adds a nice little boost to some contenders that really needed it, especially Michael B. Jordan. Creed is a bit of question mark in the Oscar race. It has the critical love and the box office, but the only member of the film that’s received any attention at all is Sylvester Stallone. Again, that’s not to say the Academy won’t embrace the film, but it’s nice to see Jordan get a shout out here over Leonardo DiCaprio and Johnny Depp.

Check out the full list of winners below.

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