Oscar Predictions: Who Will, Could, And Should Win?

After a wild ride of an awards season that started out with so much hope and promise, only to end with major disappointment, Oscar night is just about here. Yes, Leonardo DiCaprio is assured his elusive first trophy, and unfortunately it’s come down to The Revenant and Mad Max with some heat from Spotlight.

Yes, the races have solidified pretty quickly; there’s a general consensus of who’s winning. But that doesn’t mean were in for a total snooze fest, right? (I can hold out some hope).

So, let’s get on with putting a cap on this season already by looking at the major races. Who will, could and should win? And who got snubbed?

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Dr. Luke Deleted An Incriminating Tweet From His Profile

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Dr. Luke wasted no time cleaning up his social media accounts after a judge ruled against Kesha’s plea to be released from her recording contract. In particular, the producer deleted a tweet of Kesha sleeping with the caption, “Damn my artists work hard!”

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Puritan New England Is Terrifying In “The Witch”

I’ve been hearing outstanding things about Robert Eggers’ The Witch since its Sundance Film Festival premiere last year. Eggers won the festival’s Best Director award, and the film was instantly picked up by the ever-growing A24 for release this year (this was due to their slate of films released in 2015, including the Oscar nominated Room). Everyone from Stephen King to the Satanic Temple has given the film their blessing. While it was almost impossible to wait that long given the hype preceding its release, I’m glad I finally caught up with the first great film of this year.

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Best Performances of The Year: 2015

This year’s awards season started off with so much promise and a wealth of contenders. You had inspired choices like Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria cleaning up with the critics, Idris Elba on the cusp of his first Oscar nomination for Beasts of No Nation and Michael B. Jordan having a true breakout moment in Creed. You had films like Chi-Raq, The End of the Tour, Tangerine and Love & Mercy all of which were brilliant, but ultimately passed over in favor of mindless Oscar bait. In the end, the Academy’s narrow scope once again limited the possibilities of what was possible to a mindless lineup that required no imagination. In doing so, they saw the revival of #OscarsSoWhite for the second consecutive year.

But what if the Academy thought outside their narrow bubble? What if they used their imaginations and rewarded actually great performances, instead of the ones with the biggest campaigns behind them? I imagine we would see Mya Taylor’s brilliantly rendered Alex from Tangerine, instead of Jennifer Jason-Leigh’s half-baked “feminist” take on a battered woman in The Hateful Eight. Or maybe Benicio Del Toro’s menacing Alejandro from Sicario over Christian Bale’s hammy, phoned in performance in The Big Short.

2015 gave us so many amazing films with fully realized performances, that still live on despite the Academy’s ignorance.

Here’s my acting ballot. Who really deserved a nomination this year. 

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We Need To Talk About Sarah Paulson

Though she’s absolutely killing it on American Crime Story: The People Vs. OJ Simpson, people know who Sarah Paulson is from her work on the creepy American Horror Story, and rightfully so. What the actress does on that show is so electric, that she can make even the most unwatchable moments (I’m looking at you Freak Show) seem compelling. Even when the show’s Queen Bee Jessica Lange faltered or chewed the scenery just a bit too much, Paulson was always there to reign her, and the show, back in.

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“The Revenant” Wins Big At The BAFTAS

I don’t know how we got here, but it would seem like The Revenant has got the best chance at winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

The film showed a surprising strength after leading the nomination count with The Academy last month, but there was still a strong consensus around Spotlight and The Big Short. And while those two films each have a big award from an important guild (SAG and the PGA respectively), The Revenant’s unexpected win with the DGA and the BAFTAs makes the heat around it seem that much stronger.

Leonardo Dicaprio’s star power is not be underestimated; He’s been cleaning up this awards season due to a lack of competition and the “it’s time” narrative. But there seems to be an extreme enthusiasm for the film outside of Leo’s work, and director Iñárritu’s win for Birdman last year doesn’t seem to be slowing the momentum down whatsoever.

It’s clearly between The Big Short, Spotlight and The Revenant for the win; a photo finish. Each have their appeal, but if you had to ask me which film stood the best chance at winning right now, I’d say The Revenant. It has the actors, the directors, and the various crafts behind it. And while there’s a case to be made for Mad Max: Fury Road, I’m not sure there’s been enough enthusiasm from the guilds (in terms of wins) to justify that theory.

There’s always room for surprises however; I think it’s been too crazy of a year to have The Revenant take home the gold. When I say it’s going to win, that’s what the stats would suggest. My heart tells me Mad Max: Fury Road is going to win due to a 3-way split. There’s no sure way to say with how spread out the awards have been. This will be one of those years where it won’t be revealed until Oscar night.

Take a look below at the full list of winners from the BAFTAs below.

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Awards Season Double Standards: The Curious Case Of Leonardo DiCaprio

It seems as if this is the year that Leonardo DiCaprio will win that (seemingly) elusive Academy Awards.

When it was announced that DiCaprio was leading the cast of Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s follow up to Birdman, he surged to the top of everyone’s Best Actor predictions. The fact that Birdman netted the top awards at last year’s ceremony (Best Picture and Director, to name a few) only cemented those chances, it seemed. Contenders have come and gone, but it’s Leo who seems to be destined for a win.

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“Spotlight” Gets A Boost At The SAG Awards

After losing Best Picture at the Producer’s Guild Awards last week, Spotlight got a bump after winning the top prize over The Big Short at the Screen Actor’s Guild this evening.

Seeing as the actors are the largest voting body in the Academy, this is pretty substantial. However, the Best Ensemble prize matches with Oscar’s Best Picture choice less than the PGA’s award has in the past. Films like The Help have won with SAG and gone on to lose the Oscar, so it isn’t always a sure thing.

It’ll be interesting to see how the other guilds vote, and how much of the absence of Mad Max here plays out with the Academy.

In the other categories, Brie Larson, Alicia Vikander and Leonardo DiCaprio predictably won, while Idris Elba unexpectedly (and deservedly) won in Supporting Actor.

Though he was snubbed for an Oscar, it was his first major win of the season (and his first of two wins tonight). Presumed frontrunner, Sylvester Stallone, was not nominated tonight. Though it did rub salt in the wound of Elba’s snub, I was happy to see him get a win. He’s clearly beloved by his peers, and it’s time the industry as a whole took notice of that.

Take a look at the full list of winners from tonight, below.

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