Best Picture:
- Call Me By Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Phantom Thread! Paul Thomas Anderson’s heavily stylized and late entry into the Oscar race seems to have definitely resonated with voters, despite not performing as strongly as the films it knocked out (I, Tonya and The Big Sick) in the precursors. Darkest Hour also had a late surge (probably from the BAFTA contingent of voters). Besides that, no real surprises here. The Shape of Water, hot off its win at the PGA, will go head to head with Three Billboards, hot off its win with SAG. Could Lady Bird or Get Out factor into that race as well? Only time will tell.
Predictions Match: 7/9
Best Director:
- Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
- Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
This is perhaps the best Best Director lineup I’ve seen in a long, long, long, long time. Both Gerwig and Peele made it in despite thoughts that they’d cancel each other out. It was the contender everyone assumed was safe, Martin McDonagh, that blanked here to make room for Paul Thomas Anderson. With The Shape of Water leading the nominations this morning, it’s undeniable that Guillermo del Toro will win here.
Predictions Match: 4/5
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
- Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
- Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq.
It turns out I underestimated the backlash against James Franco following the sexual assault allegations against him. Denzel Washington managed to make it in despite how his film’s low profile. Darkest Hour clearly has its support within the Academy, so start engraving Gary Oldman’s name on that statuette now.
Just want to take this time to express how happy I am that Daniel Kaluuya managed such an impressive string of nominations (BAFTA, SAG, Globe and now Oscar) when many thought he was on the bubble of missing out.
Predictions match: 4/5
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Meryl Streep, The Post
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
The late breaking love for Molly’s Game and Victoria & Abdul wasn’t enough to deny Meryl Streep her 21st Oscar nomination for The Post (never underestimate Streep people). I’m still feeling a little confident in Saoirse’s chances here, though this will probably go to Frances McDormand.
Predictions Match: 5/5
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
- Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s a shame that the Academy needed to nominate both men from Three Billboards and couldn’t find any room to reward Michael Stuhlbarg or Armie Hammer. Not much to say here. Rockwell will probably continue to steamroll.
Predictions Match: 5/5
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
- Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
- Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Surprise! That BAFTA nomination was an indicator of love for Lesley Manville, who along with Octavia Spencer unseated Holly Hunter and Hong Chau from this category. All this strife and they still couldn’t find love for Tiffany Haddish?
Predictions Match: 3/5
Best Adapted Screenplay:
- James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
- Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green, Logan
- Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
- Virgil Williams & Dee Rees, Mudbound
Predictions Match: 5/5
Best Original Screenplay:
- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
- Jordan Peele, Get Out
- Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
- Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
- Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another case of me overestimating the appeal of I, Tonya; The Shape of Water managed to make it in here after all.
Predictions Match: 4/5
Best Cinematography:
- Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
- Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
- Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
- Dan Lausten, The Shape of Water
- Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
Rachel Morrison (deservedly) made history this morning as the first woman ever to be nominated for cinematography in the Academy’s 90 year history.
Predictions Match: 4/5
Best Costume Design:
- Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul
- Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
- Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
- Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
- Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water
Predictions Match: 2/5
Best Film Editing:
- Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
- John Gregory, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya
- Lee Smith, Dunkirk
- Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
Predictions Match: 4/5
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
- Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten, Wonder
- Daniel Phillips & Lou Sheppard, Victoria & Abdul
- Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour
Predictions Match: 2/3
Best Original Score:
- Carter Burwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
- Johnny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
- John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Best Original Song:
- “A Mighty River” from Mudbound, Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
- “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, Sufjan Stevens
- “Remember Me” from Coco, Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
- “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman, Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
- “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, Diane Warren & Common
Predictions Match: 3/5
Best Production Design:
- Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer, Beauty and the Beast
- Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola, Blade Runner 2049
- Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer, Darkest Hour
- Nathan Crowley & Gary Fettis, Dunkirk
- Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin & Shane Vieau, The Shape of Water
Predictions Match: 4/5
Best Sound Editing:
- Julian Slater, Baby Driver
- Mark Mangini & Theo Green Blade Runner 2049
- Alex Gibson & Richard King, Dunkirk
- Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water
- Ren Klyce & Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predictions Match: 5/5
Best Sound Mixing:
- Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin, Baby Driver
- Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill, Blade Runner 2049
- Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo, Dunkirk
- Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water
- David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Kylce & Stuart Wilson, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predictions Match: 4/5
Best Visual Effects:
- John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover & Gerd Nefzer, Blade Runner 2049
- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner & Dan Sudick, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. II
- Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus, Kong: Skull Island
- Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould & Neal Scanlon, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
- Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett & Joel Whist, War for the Planet of the Apes
Predictions Match: 3/5
Best Animated Feature:
- The Boss Baby
- The Breadwinner
- Coco
- Ferdinand
- Loving Vincent
Predictions Match: 4/5
Foreign Language Film:
- A Fantastic Woman
- The Insult
- Loveless
- On Body and Soul
- The Square
Predictions Match: 1/5
Jon On Film 